Climate outlook predicts wet season for most of southern Africa

Staff Writer

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) region is poised for a period of normal to above-normal rainfall across most of its territory from February through June 2026, a new forecast shows.

The official forecast, released by the Thirty-Second Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-32), indicates that while the central and inland areas will see significant moisture, certain areas will remain dry.

Specifically, the entire western coastal areas and the north-eastern parts of the SADC region are excluded from the higher rainfall projections.

Additionally, Mauritius is the only specific location expected to experience below-normal rainfall, a condition forecast for the April to June 2026 period.

“Temperature outlook for the February to June 2026 season indicates that temperatures are expected to be mostly above long-term averages over the whole of the SADC, except for central parts of the region where cooler than normal temperatures are expected,” the statement says.

The climate outlook is influenced by shifting atmospheric conditions. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected to move from a weak La Niña to neutral conditions during the season.

Simultaneously, the Indian Ocean Dipole, another critical driver of regional weather, is transitioning from a negative phase to a neutral phase.

While rainfall is expected to be steady for most, temperatures will remain high. Experts predict that temperatures will be mostly above long-term averages for the entire SADC region, with the exception of central areas where cooler-than-normal conditions are anticipated.

The SARCOF-32 statement was developed by climate experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services using data from Global Producing Centres.