Bongi Khumalo
Authorities have warned farmers against planting too early after recent isolated rainfall, cautioning that early sowing risks severe crop failure as below-normal rainfall forecasts loom over the 2026/27 farming season.
The warning was issued during a meeting of the National Development Strategy 2 (NDS2) Agriculture, Food, Climate, and Environment Thematic Working Group where officials stressed that scattered early thundershowers do not mark the official start of the rainy season or indicate a reduction in El Niño-related climate risks.
Chairman of the thematic working group, Professor Obert Jiri, advised farmers to base planting decisions on measured rainfall totals and soil moisture depth rather than early, erratic showers.
He noted that while localised rain can create a false impression of seasonal onset, early dry spells remain a serious threat to newly germinated crops.
“We still encourage farmers to be patient about planting,” Prof Jiri said. “Farmers must remain cautious as we move deeper into October and deeper into November.”
Government advisories reinforce this stance, recommending that planting should generally only occur after a location receives at least 20mm of rainfall within a three-day window, provided adequate soil moisture exists, and follow-up precipitation is projected.
The caution aligns with broader regional climate projections. The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) of Zimbabwe has issued seasonal forecasts indicating high probabilities of below-normal rainfall across most of Southern Africa for the October 2026 to March 2027 period, driven by a strengthening El Niño phase.
MSD Acting Deputy Director for Public Weather Service Isaac Masawana emphasised the importance of distinguishing long-term climate trends from short-term weather events.
He clarified that a forecast of below-normal rainfall does not mean an absolute absence of rain, as localised heavy storms and short rainy periods can still occur throughout a dry season.
He urged agricultural stakeholders to continuously monitor short-range forecasts and daily MSD updates rather than relying solely on the general seasonal outlook.
In response to the climate outlook, the government is intensifying preparations under the NDS2 framework to build long-term climate resilience and cushion the agricultural sector against extreme dry spells.
The national drought response strategy centres on six operational pillars, namely expanding climate-smart agriculture (Pfumvudza/Intwasa) targeting one million hectares, building a strategic grain reserve of 600,000 tonnes, strengthening soil testing and extension services, enhancing livestock protection, developing new financing mechanisms, and scaling up integrated coordination.
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