Staff Writer
The Meteorological Services Department has released its seasonal rainfall forecast, predicting above-normal rainfall across Zimbabwe for the majority of the 2024/25 season.
The forecast, divided into four sub-seasons, indicates that while the October to December period may experience normal to below-normal rainfall, the subsequent sub-seasons – November to January, December to February, and January to March – are expected to receive normal to above-normal precipitation.
This positive outlook suggests that Zimbabwe could see sufficient rainfall for agricultural production and other water-dependent activities.
However, the Meteorological Services Department cautioned that intra-seasonal variability is common, meaning rainfall patterns can change significantly within a season.
This could lead to periods of heavy rainfall or prolonged dry spells, necessitating careful planning and adaptation.
To mitigate potential risks, the department recommended the cloud seeding programme to be implemented during the season to enable rainfall enhancement if required.
It also implemented the use of irrigation to maximize on the temperatures during the first half of the season (October to December) and during periods of prolonged dry spells during the season.
“Contingency plans for extreme events such as violent storms, prolonged dry spells, flash floods to be in place. Water harvesting and conservation programmes to be maintained given the intra-seasonal rainfall variability,” the department said.
It added that agricultural activities such as planting and fertiliser application should be guided by the 10-day weather forecasts.
The Meteorological Services Department said it will continue to monitor seasonal climate indicators which influence Zimbabwe’s rainfall as they evolve.
It said the seasonal rainfall predictions will be updated on a monthly basis beginning end of October. In addition to this forecast, the department said there will be daily weather forecasts and 10-day weather bulletins that will account for short term variabilities such as dry and wet spells.
The national forecast is being issued after the consensus regional rainfall outlook shared during the 29th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook (SARCOF-29), held in August.
The Meteorological Services Department, within the Ministry of Environment, Climate and Wildlife issued the national rainfall forecast through the National Climate Outlook Forum (NACOF).
The NACOF provides the national seasonal rainfall outlook, which is downscaled from the Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum to capture the influence of the local climate drivers.
The platform brings together national stakeholders to discuss the seasonal rainfall projection for the forthcoming rainy season and the sector-specific implications.
The 2024/25 rainfall season coincides with a weak La Niña phase. There are prospects of better rainfall for the country from the second sub-season until the end of the forecast period, which spans from November-March.
The forecast for the 2024/2025 rainfall season is based on the accumulated rainfall for each sub-season, without taking into consideration its temporal distribution.
