Agric sector to contract by 21.2% due to drought

Staff Writer

Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube says the agriculture sector is projected to contract by 21.2% this year down from the 4.9% initially projected, due to the severe than anticipated impact of the El Niño-induced poor rainfall outturn for the 2023/24 summer cropping season.

The El Niño weather pattern, characterised by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific, has disrupted rainfall patterns in Southern Africa, leading to widespread crop failures.

Presenting the Mid-Term Budget and Economic Review, Ncube said the late onset and unreliable rains during the first six months of the season impacted negatively on planting activities.

This resulted in a 6% decrease in total area planted during the 2023/24 season from 3.8 million hectares to 3.6 million hectares.

The treasury chief said the long dry spells and high temperatures across the country during the mid-season, caused severe moisture stress, wilting of crops and significant crop failure in most areas.

According to the Second Round Crops, Livestock and Fisheries Assessment, maize output is projected at 634 699 tonnes, while traditional grains are estimated at 109 572 tonnes, during the 2023/24 agriculture season.

This brings the total national grain production to 744 271 tonnes, 77% below the production levels achieved in the 2022/23 agricultural season.

This is against the background of national grain requirements of 2.2 million tonnes for human, livestock consumption and the strategic grain reserve.

Food Crops Production Estimates (metric tonnes)

The Minister said the government is in the process of importing 300 000 tonnes of grain for the vulnerable population, as part of its food mitigation program for the 2024 fiscal year.

The private sector is complementing government efforts by importing the balance, Ncube said.

“Growth prospects of the sector and food security situation, however, may improve on account of higher wheat output than expected during this winter wheat season considering the huge area planted of 121 000 hectares against a target of 120 000 hectares,” he said.

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